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Anyone hoping for a period of calm after the turbulence of the past year will be disappointed. For the economy and for business, as well as for politics, 2009 promises to be a year of bracing adjustment to a changed world.In politics the most obvious change will be in the White House: in January Barack Obama will become America’s first black president. This is a remarkable achievement—and a remarkable opportunity. Abroad, President Obama can restore America’s standing after the damage of the Bush years. At home, together with a Democratic Congress, he has a chance to bring about bold reform, notably in America’s health-care system. Indeed, such are the expectations of Mr Obama that one of his biggest challenges will be to manage them so that he does not disappoint too much.
Beyond America, too, it will be a busy year for politics, with a large chunk of humanity involved in elections. India, the world’s biggest democracy, holds a general election. So does Germany, Europe’s largest economy, and in June the whole 27-country European Union votes in elections for the European Parliament. There will be presidential polls in Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim country, and in pivotal places such as South Africa, Iran and Afghanistan. Voters everywhere will focus mainly on local issues, as they always do, but in the background will lurk broader arguments over the changing attitudes to markets and the role of the state.
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